SNAP FOOD RESTRICTION WAIVERS WILL REACH 7.5M HOUSEHOLDS BY END OF 2026, NUMERATOR REPORTS

New SNAP Waiver Policies Could Represent Up to $830M Risk in Soda, Candy, and Energy Drink Sales

CHICAGO, May 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Numerator, a consumer data and technology company, has released a report on how Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) spending was affected by the October–November 2025 government shutdown and how it will be impacted by Food Restriction Waivers and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). The report, “SNAP Spending in 2026: How OBBBA and Food Restrictions Are Changing Consumer Behavior,” combines verified purchase data as well as a Verified Voices survey of over 1,000 SNAP households (households that used SNAP as a payment method on a shopping trip at least once per month for the past year) to provide a forward-looking view of how upcoming changes will reshape behavior for consumers, brands, and retailers.

• The government shutdown softened late October and early November SNAP spending. Weekly grocery spending among SNAP households fell by 10%, from $233 in the week of October 5 to $210 by October 26, before stabilizing into early November and eventually recovering.
  • Spending cuts during the shutdown were in categories that could be easily deferred. In the four-week period ending 11/9/2025, hardware (-18%), fast food restaurant desserts (-10%), beverages (-6%), frozen foods (-6%), and snacks (-5%) saw the largest pullbacks vs. the prior four weeks.
  • Gas & Convenience and eCommerce saw steep traffic declines as SNAP households cut back on non-essential trips. The retailers and fast food restaurants whose traffic was most affected included 7-Eleven (-18%), Amazon (-17%), Shell (-15%), Ahold Delhaize (-14%), Circle K (-13%), Wawa (-13%), and Taco Bell (-13%).
• Food Restriction Waivers (FRWs) will structurally change the program. By the end of 2026, 19 states will have waivers in place, affecting roughly one-third of SNAP participants. These policies directly restrict the use of SNAP benefits for categories such as soda, candy, and energy drinks—categories that were already more likely to be embedded in SNAP baskets.
  • Restrictions are arriving in places where engagement with these categories is already high. In states where 2026 waivers are already active, soft drinks appeared in 23% of their 2025 SNAP trips, compared to 18% in non-waiver states. Candy showed a similar pattern (21% vs. 17%), as did energy drinks (10% vs. 8%).
  • SNAP households are aware of FRWs and plan to trade down or substitute restricted items. 86% of SNAP households in FRW states say they are aware of incoming restrictions. 63% of SNAP consumers would use non-SNAP dollars to purchase soda if it became ineligible, whether to buy as usual or shift to less expensive alternatives. 60% said the same with candy, and 45% said the same for energy drinks.
  • SNAP consumers may opt for healthier alternatives to restricted items. If soda and energy drinks became ineligible, over 30% of SNAP consumers said they would possibly substitute with tea, juice, and coffee. Candy showed a similar pattern, with fruit, ice cream, and fruit snacks also each cited by over 30% of SNAP users as potential replacements.
  • Restricted categories could see losses of up to $830 million. In states implementing FRW restrictions by the end of 2026, SNAP households intending to redirect spending to other categories or cut back purchases could drive sales declines of up to $430M for soda, $300M for candy, and $100M for energy drinks.
• New SNAP policy has already reduced benefits and increased cost pressures. The extension of work requirements to adults aged 55 to 64 without dependents is among the most immediately impactful elements of the OBBBA, with 54% of these households reporting reduced benefits since November 2025 (29% say the reduction is extreme, 26% say it is minor to moderate).
  • At-risk households have invested more into value retailers and pulled away from online. In December 2025, Sam’s Club, Dollar Tree, and Aldi saw increased spending from 54–65-year-old SNAP households (vs. the prior month) with Amazon and Walmart.com showing pronounced pullback in the same period.
  • Promotions and private label could see a lift as SNAP households seek value. 48% of 55–64-year-old SNAP households expect future reductions in monthly benefits. If benefits are reduced further, these consumers plan to shop sales/discounts (54%), buy private label and cheaper brands (37%), visit food pantries (36%), and shop at dollar/discount stores (30%).

For additional survey and purchase data on SNAP consumers, including state-level views and top CPG and General Merchandise retailers, visit the Numerator SNAP Insights Center at numerator.com/SNAP.

Numerator’s SNAP survey was fielded on 1/23/2026 to 1,016 SNAP households. Purchase data was compiled using Numerator’s Total Commerce Panel.

About Numerator
Numerator is a data company transforming how consumers and markets are understood. Powered by advanced technology and proprietary, zero-party purchase and survey data from more than one million households, Numerator provides visibility into consumer behavior and attitudes across consumer goods, retail, restaurants, tech and media, management consulting, institutional investors, and the public sector. Headquartered in Chicago, Numerator drives decisions at the world’s largest and fastest-growing companies in more than 50 countries.

Bob Richter
Numerator
212-802-8588
press@numerator.com

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